Restaurant loyalty ROI: measure extra visits and contribution

A stamp card can increase recorded member visits without creating new business: regular guests enrol and collect a reward for visits they would have made anyway. Use a defined group and compare their prior behaviour with a similar group during the same period. Check group size, usual visit frequency, season, and capacity. If the restaurant is already full, a rewarded visit may displace a full-price one. Record rewards redeemed and the cost of outstanding earned rewards. Keep personal data limited to the programme’s purpose and apply the restaurant’s stated permissions and retention rules.

Controls to put in writing

• Design: define qualifying purchases, reward value, expiry, and clear guest terms; model the cost before launch.
• Baseline: compare similar guests over the same period; do not compare all members with an unrelated average.
• Cost: include reward cost or margin reduction, software, messages, and staff time without counting discounts twice.
• Review: track incremental visits, contribution, redemptions, outstanding reward cost, and capacity used during peak hours.

A worked example

A practical operating process

1. 1Define the pilot. Choose a guest group, reward, period, and spending cap. Write the baseline and the action needed for success.
2. 2Record visits and rewards. Keep consistent guest and visit records, redemption costs, and outstanding rewards. Train staff to apply the same rules.
3. 3Compare equivalent groups. Check group sizes, prior visit frequency, attendance, season, and capacity. Mark any remaining attribution uncertainty.
4. 4Calculate and decide. Estimate extra contribution, subtract programme costs, and review net result. Adjust the reward or stop the test if it removes margin without extra visits.